A Cat Scan on electoral trends

Ritam Banati Election Commissioner Dr Qureshi has aptly remarked, "Democracy is a very fragile form of government". How carefully it is handled this time by the UPA will be partially clear after the 100-day action plan initiated by the Prime Minister reaches fruition. The verdict of this year’s General Election came as a surprise to many who had predicted a fractured verdict in which regional parties would have a substantial say. That they did have the same is beyond doubt in an age when coalition politics has become the norm in India since, as BJP’s Nalin Kohli put it, 1977; and as Congress’ Manish Tiwari put it essentially since 1996. However we overestimated the role of the regional parties in national politics. As per a survey by Lokniti, the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, the growth of the regional parties politically has not seen a decline in the past few elections, but it has also not witnessed an upward trend either. The survey also found that the percentage of seats that the Congress’ allies lost in 2009 compared to 2004 was more or less balanced by the percentage the party itself won this year compared to 2004. Therefore, the combined effect if one puts it that way became neutral. But if one looks at the BJP then one finds that the percentage it won this year was less this time and its allies too won fewer seats in 2009. And in both the years the Congress and allies gained more seats vis-à-vis the BJP. Thus, it was disadvantage BJP that became Benefit Congress in the political game. One more point to mention here is that the recession wave also proved to aid the Congress as the people didn’t want any other issue, least of all Hindutva, at this juncture to deal with. That is why the issue of prices was at the top of the voter’s list as against the nuke deal and other matters, as per the survey by Lokniti. Why the people decided against the BJP was mainly due to the absence of a tall leader like Vajpayee, the electorate’s rejection of the Hindutva ideology and also the negativity that the party created to malign the image of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. By calling Manmohan weak, Advani was only spoiling his own chances. The reply that he got from the PM who said that at least he would not be found crying when a mosque was being demolished and a subtle reference to the fact that if a Minister says that he had no knowledge of what was happening in Kandahar-exchange of passengers with terrorists; then he was not an able Minister. Meanwhile, the Congress realised that if it too adopted the same strategy of condemning and criticising then it would only backfire. So it stayed more or less aloof from offensive tactics and instead focused on its accomplishments which proved to be an intelligent move. Its decision to go it alone in Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 members to the Lower House, also paid rich dividends. Congress, egged on by Rahul, after a careful analysis of the situation in the politically crucial state capitalised on the opportunity and thus a whopping 21 seats fell in the party’s kitty which was even more than Mayawati’s BSP. This was despite the fact that the number of votes which the Congress got was not as large as the number which the BSP gained. But the good haul of seats nevertheless has prepared ground for revival of the Congress and reflects on the long-term strategy it plans to adopt. One cannot also ignore flagship schemes like the NREGA, mid-day meal schemes, Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan etc. But one important revolutionary step which Congress’ Manish Tiwari proudly boasted of was the introduction of the Right to Information Act. This made the common man feel important. One also cannot find major flaws in the way this election was conducted, especially after the widespread introduction of the Electronic Voting Machine as also physical runners, who were there just in case technology like wireless sets and cell phones failed. Election Commissioner Dr Qureshi proudly stated that this time the country only witnessed 19 deaths, but he did not forget to add that each one of them was unfortunate though. So the argument implied recently by Advani that the ruling party might have indulged in certain malpractices cannot be bought. When asked about that single most important reason why the BJP lost the 2004 and the 2009 elections in a row, Nalin Kohli just laughed off the question and remarked that if the BJP had won 2004 then it would have won 2009 as well, leaving the rest to imagination. However, coming to his party’s defence, Kohli did say that the BJP cannot be totally written off since it still rules on its own in six states and in a coalition in three others. Kohli while trying to dissect his party’s defeat also questioned the process of delimitation of parliamentary constituencies, which as per him, needs a thorough scrutiny. There were various other factors as well that contributed to Congress’ re-election to power. It is more for the BJP to delve into it if it seriously wants to make a comeback on the national scene. The party must ponder over what Dr Qureshi said for his Election Commission, "If we get our role right, we get the poll right". I think this applies to the politicians also.