Maya-Raj back in UP

Arun Chaubey

It is a vote for democracy and a mandate for change in Uttar Pradesh. BSP chief Mayawati, who was pooh-poohed for her ‘tall claims’ that she would command absolute majority on her own has stood the two-decade old formula of social engineering on its head. The slogan of ‘Sarva Samaj’ has sealed the fate of those who were banking upon the power of caste mathematics. If one were to go back to the heyday of Congress rule, one would find that Brahmins and upper castes used to lead while Dalits and Muslims used to vote. Now, Bahenji - a Dalit icon, will rule with the support of both Brahmins and Muslims. The paradigm shift has brought with it several surprises, and the worst sufferer is the BJP. To understand the BSP’s turnaround and the debacle of SP, let us try to go through the reasons phase-wise to analyse the reality of UP assembly elections. First phase The first phase was fought on 62 seats covering 13 districts of Bundelkhand and partially covering UP’s western and central parts. These have been considered a stronghold of SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav. The SP, which had won 24 seats in 2002, bit the dust this time and could manage only 15 seats. The party’s bid to persuade Bundelas in Lalitpur and former MPs Gangacharan Rajput and Ashok Chandel to share the same platform with Rajnarayan Badholia totally failed. The BJP, which had won 16 seats in 2002, was expecting a lot with the projection of political heavyweight Kalyan Singh as the party’s chief ministerial candidate, but all its hopes were dashed. Its dreams of capturing even those seats where it had had a close finish in the past crumbled when it finished with a meagre seven seats in this phase. For Congress, the Rahul road shows covering the districts of Lalitpur, Etawah and Kanpur did not inspire the voters to choose India’s oldest political party over the others. Its tally remained the same as before - four seats. The BSP, which had won 14 seats in 2002 and was in a close contest in 21 other constituencies, surprised everyone by clinching 33 seats. Clearly early preparations paid the party rich dividends. Second phase The second phase covering 58 constituencies was spread across 10 districts of western UP. This round had a number of seats where the reputation of several important leaders was at stake. The BSP, which had won 15 seats in 2002, almost doubled its tally by winning in 29 constituencies. These districts have about 20 to 25% Dalit votes. Barring Hathras in the the other 9 districts Muslim population is also about 16 to 30%. Mayawati managed to retain the BSP’s Muslim support despite the United Democratic Front of Haji Yaqoob being in the fray. Incidentally, Haji Yaqoob turned out to be the lone winner for the UDF. Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which had won 11 seats in the last elections and later increased its tally to 15, again proved to be the true inheritor of Choudhary Charan Singh’s mantle by winning 10 seats in its area of influence. The BJP again came a cropper by only managing to retain the same number of seats that it had captured in 2002. Its 10 seats did not have Dibai where Kalyan Singh’s son, Rajvir, did not live up to his party’s expectations and lost. Mulayam Singh, whose party had won 8 seats in the area in 2002, was on tough terrain in this region this time too. Just before the election, the party got a jolt when Haji Yaqoob Qureshi, one of the SP government’s Muslim faces left the party to contest on an UDF ticket. The SP plank of opening a Muslim University and an appeal in the Supreme Court on the Muslim minority issue also failed to turn the tide in its favour. The party was reduced to three seats. Phase II also witnessed Rahul Gandhi’s famous remark that had a member of the Gandhi family been in the prime minister’s chair at that time, Babri mosque’s demolition would have been prevented. This, however, cut no ice with the voters. Congress also entered into an alliance with Chaudhary Mahendra Singh Tikait’s Bharatiya Kisan Union. This too failed to either dent the RLD’s support or to attract Muslim voters. The Congress, which had won six seats in 2002, had to satisfy itself with only two seats here. Third phase Phase III saw voting in 57 constituencies spread over 10 districts. The region has 40 seats where Muslims comprise 20% of the total populace, while in another 25 seats in the area, their population is over 30%. The SP, which had won 25 seats in 2002, was hopeful of repeating its past performance. The party did well comparatively by winning 15 seats and also found solace in the victory of Mulayam Singh from Budaun’s Gunnaur. In this phase Rahul Gandhi’s statement in Bareilly that the Gandhi family was responsible for achieving the freedom of the country and dividing Pakistan into two again kicked up controversy. But again this failed to polarise votes in Congress’ favour. The party, which had won four seats in 2002, had only one to show for its labour this time. The BJP had won 11 seats here in 2002, but this time, it was reduced to a mere eight. It must not have expected much in this phase due to the primacy of Muslim voters on several seats, but it had been eyeing support from other backward castes minus the Yadavs. Clearly it was hoping invain. The stunner was reserved for the BSP. Mayawati successfully wooed Muslims voters, besides having almost total support of the Dalits in the region. The BSP, which had won nine seats in 2002 assembly polls, shocked its opponents by winning 28 seats this time. Fourth phase The Phase IV witnessed polls in 57 constituencies spread again over 10 districts and included several high profile candidates. The Samajwadi Party, which had put up an impressive performance by winning 31 seats in 2002 managed to save its face by wining 23 seats again. However, the exit of Mulayam’s friend, Beni Prasad Verma, cost the party dear. The BSP increased its tally from 9 to 26 seats in this round. This was as per expectations. The slogan of Sarva Samaj i.e. ‘society as a whole’ impressed many. BSP ably managed to woo Brahmins and other forwards castes. The Muslims’ tactical voting pattern added to BSP’s kitty of seats. BJP had high expectations from this phase. It had won 14 seats in 2002. But its hopes were belied. The party managed only four seats in this round. Hectic campaigning by its veteran backward faces -- Kalyan Singh and Vinay Katiyar – failed to convert well attended rallies into votes. The party’s pre-poll alliance partner Apna Dal, which fielded about 10 candidates in this region, actually exacerbated BJP’s misery. The Congress, on the other hand did better than the last time by improving its tally by one – from two to three. Fifth phase Phase V covering 57 constituencies spread across nine districts included Lok Sabha constituencies of VIPs like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. For the Congress party, Priyanka Vadra Gandhi took personal charge of Rae Bareli and Sultanpur districts, which have 15 assembly seats. The party, which had won only 4 seats in 2002, was handed a face-saving tally. It won in nine seats -- the highest number in all the phases. The BJP, which had won 16 seats in 2002, was agog with positive results of exit polls. It was also expecting a u-turn after its successful performance in the recently held two state elections in Punjab and Uttarakhand. But its candidates failed miserably at the hustings. The BJP managed only five seats in this round. Fighting against all odds the SP, which had won 14 seats in 2002, managed to win 12 seats to keep its tally here more or less intact. But the Yadav-Muslim alliance, which had helped the party so well in 2002, was cracking. As the BSP performance showed. The BSP had won maximum of 19 seats in 2002. But this time Behenji had planned an even better show. She won on 26 seats. The districts covered in this region had Dalit population comprising 25 to 36 % of the total barring Lucknow, where it was 16%. Besides, Brahmins (7 to 14%) and Muslims (6 to 13%) voters also extended whole-hearted support to add to Mayawati’s kitty. Sixth phase The eastern part of state has 111 seats, and was covered in the last two phases. Phase VI witnessed polls for 52 seats spread across nine districts. Till 1989, the Congress had dominated in these districts. With the Ram Mandir movement in the early 1990s, the BJP came to the fore, but by 2002, the electorate had moved to vote for the SP. SP had won on 20 seats in the 2002 polls. This time issues like the Mau riots of 2005 and the killing of BJP MLA, Krishnanand Rai, added to its unpopularity. The result -- the SP’s tally was reduced to only 11 seats. The BJP under Rajnath Singh’s leadership appeared confident, but the lack of aggressive campaigning against the ruling alliance conveyed a wrong message to the voters. The party, which had won 11 seats in 2002, was routed. It won on only 6 seats despite propogating its age-old Hindu agenda. The BJP’s experiment of entering into an alliance with the Kurmi-dominated party -- Apna Dal -- appears to have actually damaged its prospects. Apna Dal chief Sonelal Patel not only lost both the seats from where he contested, his party also failed to win even a single seat. The Congress party, which had won only from Pratapur in Allahabad in 2002, failed to improve its performance winning only on Allahabad north seat. Mayawati, however, proved all her opponents wrong by making a clear dent into SP’s and BJP’s vote bank. It had won 15 seats in 2002, but its victory on 32 seats this time has added to the Dalit icon’s stature. She extended her vision beyond Dalits and allocated 86 seats to Brahmins (34 won), besides giving representation to other Forward Castes (19 Rajputs BSP candidates also won) and Muslims (30 of the 61 given tickets emerged victorious). Seventh phase Phase VII covering 59 seats spread across nine districts sealed the fate of former union Minister Beni Prasad Verma and several other ministers in the Mulayam cabinet. Since Brahmins comprise 30,000 to 80,000 eligible voters on more than half the seats of this region, BJP had allocated 15 seats to them. The party, which had won only 10 seats in 2002, was once again been rejected by its so-called traditional voters. Yogi Adityanath failed to boost the BJP even in Gorakhpur district, and the party was reduced to eight seats. Fully appreciating that the Brahmins play a crucial role in the region, the BSP gave them the bulk of tickets in this election. The party had won 17 seats in 2002. This time around BSP won on 30 seats. The SP, perhaps, failed to read the writing on wall. It had performed well by winning 21 seats here in 2002. This time it managed only seventeen. Although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh addressed a rally in Gorakhpur, and charged the Mulayam government with diverting funds from various Centrally-sponsored schemes meant for needy people, the electorate did not respond positively. The party, which had won four seats in the 2002 polls, managed to win just two seats this time. Clearly, Mayawati’s grand rainbow coalition worked wonders for the BSP by bringing together upper caste Hindus and Dalits on the same platform. The Muslims supported her trusting her secular credentials and women of various ilk gave Mayawati there whole-hearted support. Now begins the real test of Behenji. She would need all her political acumen to keep together a flock that is diverse and could turn divisive if not managed with foresight. Mayawati has not just the Dalits’ but the aspirations of all castes and creed riding on her shoulders now.