The Big Question?

By: Ankush Khanna Who’s going to win the election remains the most important question till the time the final result is out. While nothing can be said without doubt, some prediction can certainly be made on the basis of the trend.Punjab has traditionally been ruled by either Congress or Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD). The power has kept swinging between these two parties and no other party has ever formed a government in Punjab. Though the two parties have ruled the state, none of them could retain power for two consecutive terms. Moreover, except in the last election when the margin was narrow, the outgoing party has generally lost with a huge margin. In 1997, Congress won only 14, while SAD got 75 seats. In 1992, Congress won 87 while SAD was reduced to mere three seats. Again, in 1985 Congress won 32 while SAD won 73 seats. Going by this, SAD may come to power in alliance with BJP. But is this reason enough for SAD to win? The answer is ‘No’, because there are numerous factors that play a role in the outcome of an election. Interestingly, the Communist Party of India, which fought the 2002 Assembly polls in alliance with the Congress, refused to form an alliance with its partner in the last polls. Not only that, the CPI has formed a Third Front to oust both Congress as well as SAD-BJP combine. The Third Front comprises CPI, CPI (M), Lok Bhalai Party and SAD(1920), and is serious to raise the “inefficiency” of both the grand parties and give them a tough fight in the forthcoming polls. The Front may not win the election, but it would certainly have an impact on the vote share of the grand parties. BSP chief Mayawati’s decision to contest all 117 seats would also take away a large share of SC, ST votes from Congress and SAD-BJP alliance. Though BSP won just one seat in the 1997 elections and failed to win a single seat in the last Assembly polls, the party could still manage to win at least 5% votes as predicted by a joint survey conducted by two leading media houses in the country. And if the control of the powerful Shiromani Gurdwara Prabandhak Committee (SGPC) is any indication, the SAD has definitely got an upper hand over the Congress as the party nominee Avtar Singh Makkar retained the post of the SGPC chief in the last election to the committee. More recently, the election of Harjinder Kaur of the SAD-BJP combine as the Mayor of Chandigarh has come as a shock to the Congress Party, more so because it won 12 of the 25 seats in the Chandigarh Municipal Corporation elections, while SAD-BJP combine got 8 seats. One of the most important factors in Punjab elections has been anti-incumbency. The swinging power between SAD and Congress also suggests that the voters in the state have voted against the ruling party at least in the last three to four decades. Though Congress has rejected a strong anti-incumbency wave, the mind of the voters cannot be assessed till the final results are out. Therefore, it is difficult to say who would win. However, one thing that can be said without doubt is that much like the last election, the fight is going to be close and if the Third Front or the Bahujan Samaj Party succeeds in securing respectable votes, the formation of government would depend on ‘post-poll alliances’ and agreements.