Will democracy prevail in Nepal?

By Ritesh Srivastav

After almost 240 years of King’s rule, the small princely state of Nepal located in the foothills of Himalayas is all set to become a Republic in the days to come. All eyes are on the fast approaching April 10 general election that aims to establish people’s rule in the country. The international community, which keenly awaits the outcome of the election, in view of claims by pro-democracy supporters that it would not only establish peace and strengthen roots of democracy, is sceptical about the likely outcome of the elections.
Political observers across the world are keeping their fingers crossed and still pondering over whether Nepal’s bumpy ride towards becoming a people’s republic will be the panacea of all that ails it – Maoists militancy, lack of development, isolation from the mainstream global politics.

But despite elections it is still unclear as to what lies in store for the embattled present ruler King Gyanendra, who has been warned by Maosists leader Prachanda to respect the the outcome of polls or otherwise be ready to face dire consequences.

Top political parties in Nepal have meanwhile knocked at every possible door and held last-minute rallies with optimism to woo millions of eligible voters till the last day of election campaigning on April 07. Despite claims of full-proof electoral arrangements, the electoral process is being looked at with suspicion amid reports that the constituent assembly elections will not be free and fair.

Nearly 17.6 million eligible voters will exercise their franchise in Thursday`s elections - the first since Communist rebels quit their 10-year armed struggle against Nepal`s government and joined the political mainstream in a process that began in 2006.

Although the former rebel Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) wants the King to quit the palace and become a normal citizen. Other parties say the King`s fate should be outlined in the Constitution to be approved by lawmakers.

Interestingly, a poll conducted in 30 of Nepal’s total 75 districts in January this year confirmed that nearly fifty-nine percent of Nepalese still preferred the country to remain a Hindu state.

The poll, which questioned at least 3,010 respondents chosen randomly from the 30 districts, had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

Many Nepalese believe Gyanendra`s family are reincarnated Hindu gods, who created the landlocked Himalayan kingdom between India and China. About 80 percent of Nepal`s 29 million citizens are Hindu.
Vital statistics, nominations and problems

According to the Election Commission, altogether 2,219 candidates have filed nominations from 240 constituencies for the crucial Constituent Assembly polls in Nepal that are being boycotted by the agitating Terai groups. In total, 74 registered political parties are in the fray and major parties Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist are contesting all 240 seats under the first-past-the post electoral system.

Out of total 601 Assembly seats, 240 candidates will be elected through direct voting system and 335 will be elected through proportionate voting system. The remaining 26 candidates will be nominated by the Nepali Prime Minister.

The highest number of candidates are contesting in Kathmandu district which has 10 constituencies. As many as 221 candidates, including Maoist chief Prachanda, have filed nominations from the valley.

Manang district, which has a single constituency, has only the lowest -- three -- candidates in fray. Prachanda has filed his candidacy from Kathmandu constituency number 10 and Rolpa constituency number 2.

The elections, which have been deferred twice, are being held in the shadow of a stir by Indian-origin Madhesi community in Terai, amid accusations of marginalisation and demands of autonomy.

Voters will elect members of the Constituent Assembly, which will rewrite the Constitution and decide key issues for Nepal`s future political system, such as the level of power granted to the Prime Minister and ways to bring a humanistic approach in the country’s administration.

Voters will be given two ballot papers. First, they choose candidates to be directly elected to the Assembly. Second, they choose a political party under a system in which parties get seats proportional to the number of votes they receive.

The country`s major parties have already agreed to do away with the constitutional monarchy, whose powers have been sharply curtailed since 2006.

Nepali Congress, the largest political party in Nepal, has pledged to push for a republic and safeguard the country`s democracy in all its political rallies and meetings.

However, its main competitor, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists) – the former Communist rebels led by their leader Prachanda – in its house-to-house campaign, has vowed to initiate a wind of change that would help break free of the squabbles of past governments.
The Election Commission has announced plans to strictly enforce the ban starting at midnight on Monday, barring even newspapers from publishing opinion pieces on the polls.

The Home Ministry has stepped up security arrangements in view of the forthcoming elections, with thousands of police officers fanning across the country. The government has hired helicopters to patrol mountainous areas and fly police to any trouble spots.

International monitoring

Considering Maoists’ blood-soaked history, several international bodies including the UN have expressed concern that Nepal`s crucial Constituent Assembly Elections could be marred by political violence. Just recently, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said public security has been dismal, with armed groups active in Nepal`s southern Terai plains determined to disrupt the elections.

In its latest report, the Brussels-based think tank pointed out that violence and intimidation, which has dogged the campaign, would be the main challenges in the days to come. The United Nations, which was invited to assist with the polls and monitor former Maoist guerrillas confined to camps around the country, has also warned that the continuing violence could derail the election.

Over 100 observers from India, Myanmar, Japan and 19 other countries will monitor Nepal`s crucial Constituent Assembly polls on April 10. The observers under the banner of Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) would make sure that the elections were held in a credible manner in about 60 districts across the country.

The ANFREL has deputed the second largest observation mission in Nepal after the European Union election observation team. Although, the land of Everest is all set to reach the peak of people’s long cherished aspiration – to shape Nepal into a democratic republic- it is yet to be known whether the King’s rule was better or will democracy improve the lives of millions of its countrymen.

People’s hatred for monarchy could be easily understood from the recent remarks of Devyani Rana, whose love story brought the royal family to its knees, that things would have been different if former King Birendra Bir Vikram Shah Dev had been alive.

People have not forgotten the way King Birendra and his family died and the massacre for the same is still shrouded in mystery.