“No two economists can ever agree on a same thing.”
Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, D Subbarao, may choose to use the above quote to justify himself if he decides to do something out of the box when the central bank announces its monetary policy on November 2.
Confronting him is the same concern that has been bothering him since mid-2009: high inflation coupled with fluctuating industrial growth – both of which are refusing to stabilise.
For example, the industrial output figure, for the month of August, was at 5.6 percent – the lowest in 15 months. The figures came at a time when almost all – economists, government as well as agencies like the IMF and the World Bank – predicted about 9 percent growth this fiscal.
The industry honchos were quick in their response and have asked the central bank not to hike rates further.
The RBI’s tight monetary policy stance has pushed up interest rates for corporates as well as for retail customers, most of whom rely on loans or credit to buy vehicles or other consumer durables, believes the industry.
However, other analysts say that looking at the runaway inflation it is imperative on the part of the RBI to make use of its available monetary and fiscal instruments to contain it.
India`s wholesale price index rose 8.62 percent in September compared with 8.5 percent in August, while annual food inflation moved up a bit to 15.53 percent for the week ended October 9.
The rise in WPI based inflation is a major concern compared to high food inflation which is primarily due to supply constraints.
The RBI, which has been one of the most aggressive central banks in Asia on policy front this year, has raised its lending rates five times by a total of 125 basis points this year.
The RBI increased rates mainly to cool inflation, following which the rate for its key short-term lending (repo) stands at 6 percent and borrowing (reverse repo) at 5 percent.
A majority of investors expect the RBI to raise its rates by a quarter of a percentage point this time around and once more by the end of the fiscal year in March.
Another major concern for the central bank is the lower-than-targeted loan growth.
Credit growth for the fortnight ended October 8 was estimated at 1.2 percent, which is way below the 20 percent mark set by the RBI.
This clearly means that there is a lower demand for bank loans and any rate hike by the RBI could further worsen this situation resulting in lower economic activity.
China recently raised interest rates to cool the economy for the first time since 2007, risking a drop in growth rate.
India’s central bank is also expected to go that way, but it will be interesting to see whether Subbarao, who is practically chained by the Central government, comes out with something unexpected to tackle the situation.
By Anil Kumar Satapathy
By clicking “Accept All Cookies”, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts.
Cookies Setting
By clicking “Accept All Cookies”, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device and the processing of information obtained via those cookies (including about your preferences, device and online activity) by us and our commercial partners to enhance site navigation, personalise ads, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts. More information can be found in our Cookies and Privacy Policy. You can amend your cookie settings to reject non-essential cookies by clicking Cookie Settings below.
Manage Consent Preferences
Strictly Necessary Cookies
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work or you may not be able to login.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then some or all of these services may not function properly.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They are also used to limit the number of times you see an advert as well as help measure the effectiveness of an advertising campaign. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we may not know when you have visited our site, and may not be able to monitor its performance.