Gold will recover its sheen in long-term

By Reema Sharma | Last Updated: Jul 03, 2013, 13:03 PM IST

Gold prices have plunged by Rs 1,150 to hit 23-month low of Rs 25,650 per 10 grams in the bullion market.

This is the third-biggest single day decline ever. The largest fall was of Rs 1,250 recorded on April 13 this year.

Bullion traders have attributed the sharp fall in the precious metal’s price to the weak sentiment as gold prices in Singapore plunged to nearly three-year low and fell below USD 1,200 an ounce on improving US economic data strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to reduce stimulus.

In an exclusive interview with Reema Sharma of, Shiv Shrivastava, MD & CEO, IGuru Research, explains the current trends in the gold market, downside risks and investment options.

What are the reasons behind the massive fall in gold prices?

1. US Federal Reserve`s hint to exit from quantitative easing 2. Hope of American economy`s recovery 3. Strengthening of the US dollar 4. Search of a better investment destination

At what range will gold trade in the near term?

In the near term gold will trade in a range of Rs 24,200 and Rs 24,500. RBI in the coming time might take steps to check the volatility in rupee; in such a scenario the gold prices might go down further. In the international market, gold is expected to be around 1180 dollar per ounce which is a crucial support.

Is it wise to invest in gold now for pure investment purpose?

No it is not wise to invest in gold for investment purpose at this level. You must adopt wait and watch policy. Following the hint of exit from quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve and expectations of a better US economy, gold prices will continue to slide. Moreover the pressure on gold will continue in case the dollar appreciates further.

Which is a better investment option? Please compare gold vis-à-vis stock or other financial investment options?

Gold investment in short term should be 40 percent of your total portfolio because gold has an attractive history. The remaining 60 percent can be invested in market and other investment options.

Gold and dollar have always been major investment options. Last April the price of gold went down, but it bounced back once again. Hence, gold will not disappoint in the long term. However, lower level or small time buyers must not park all their funds in gold.

Is it feasible to stop selling gold bar and gold coins?

Jewellery has a huge demand in India. Government can’t stop people from buying gold. During festive and wedding seasons the demand escalates even further. If government tries to stop the sale, people will indulge in black marketing which will bring a huge revenue loss to the government. Though government can try to stop the sale for short term, it cannot continue to do so for a longer period.

Do you see gold rally in future? If yes, when do you expect it?

I don’t see any major rally till 2014. Also, a lot of it depends on the Monsoon and elections. Fears that the Indian economy might not stabilise till 2014, will continue to daunt resilience in the yellow metal. However, once elections are over and a stable government is formed, the rally in gold will kick off.

What is the positive side to buying gold?

Gold is the only safe investment. Worldwide too, gold reserves or dollar reserves are believed to be the safest bet. Hence, the sheen of the yellow metal will never fade, though it might be dim for some time.