IMD says failure by numerical models in prediction of monsoon advance over Delhi rare, uncommon

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New Delhi: As rains continued avoid Delhi, the India Meteorological Department on Monday (July 12) said the failure of numerical models in predicting the monsoon advance over the capital this time is 'rare and uncommon'.

The weather department said its latest model analysis had indicated that moist easterly winds in lower level from the Bay of Bengal would spread into northwest India covering Punjab and Haryana by July 10, leading to advance of monsoon and increase in rainfall activity over the region, including Delhi, from July 10 onwards.

Accordingly, the moist easterly winds have spread into northwest India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement.

These moisture-laden winds have led to an increase in cloudiness and relative humidity. It also led to revival of monsoon over the region and occurrence of fairly widespread or widespread rainfall activity over east Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir and scattered rainfall over Punjab and west Rajasthan, it said.

“However, it did not cause significant rainfall activity over Delhi even though there was rainfall activity over neighbouring places around Delhi. Such type of failure by numerical models in prediction of monsoon advance over Delhi is rare and uncommon,” the IMD said.

The IMD is monitoring the situation continuously and will provide regular updates on the advance of monsoon into remaining parts of northwest India, including Delhi, the statement read.

Southwest Monsoon rains reached the desert district of Jaisalmer and Ganganagar, its last outposts, on Monday, but gave Delhi and parts of Haryana a miss.

It rained in the periphery of Delhi -- Aligarh in Uttar Pradesh and Karnal in Haryana -- but clouds hovered over the national capital, without giving any relief from the heat. The rains also covered west Rajasthan, Punjab and other parts of Haryana.

In 2002, monsoon reached Delhi on July 19. This is the most-delayed monsoon in the city since then.

(With inputs from news agencies)