With Omicron variant, will Covid-19 pandemic become endemic like the 1918 Spanish flu?

The Spanish Flu lasted for nearly two years, before abating and becoming an endemic by 1920. Many health experts are wondering if the Omicron variant, touted as milder, can hasten Covid-19's descent into endemic from a pandemic.

When COVID-19 struck nations globally two years back, the world as we know it changed dramatically. Lockdowns were imposed, mobility curtailed, people started working from home (for whoever it was possible) and education shifted online. While countries attempted to resume "normal" life after every wave or slump in cases, the pandemic changed the course of the world.

Prior to Covid-19, the world had seen in 1918 another pandemic - Spanish flu. The Spanish flu reportedly infected around 35% of the world population and became endemic by 1920. Virologists and scientists say the virulence - i.e severity or harmfulness - of a virus diminishes as it mutates. But there is no telling when it will actually happen. In the Spanish Flu, as in Covid1-19, the first two waves were significant, but it was the second wave that was huge and deadly. The highly fatal second wave was responsible for maximum deaths in the US, while similarly in India, the second Covid wave caused a large number of deaths.  

According to a report in India Today, the Spanish flu was so severe that 4.4 to 6.1 per cent of the Indian population died, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. The 1918 pandemic killed around 11-14 million in India.

In case of Spanish flu, the virus mutated after the second wave and become mild. This meant that people who were infected only showed symptoms like the common cold. So while the subsequent wave was milder in the Spanish Flu, some experts have wondered if this can be the case with Covid-19 too. While the Omicron variant has proven to be highly transmissible, spreading fast and wide, it has reportedly shown milder symptoms. However, it must be remembered that health experts have all said to be vigilant and the final word is far from out.

However, South Africa, which first raised the alarm about the new fast-spreading coronavirus variant, gave the world one of the last big good surprises of the year, announcing that the Omicron wave had crested without a huge surge in deaths. It lifted a nighttime curfew, unexpectedly allowing celebrations to ring in 2022.

Some health experts are hopeful that if the Omicron variant continues to show mild symptoms, it may spell the end of the pandemic.

Comparing Spanish Flu and Covid-19 pandemics, Dr Sandeep Budhiraja, Group Medical Director of Max Healthcare & Senior Director, Institute of Internal Medicine, was quoted by Outlook saying, "The two main differences are that we didn’t have the vaccine at that time and now we have the vaccine and there was no international travel at this extent that now we have, so there is too much of a population intermixing with each other. Otherwise, the way virus is behaving this time and the way virus behaved 100 years back is more or less similar."

The doctor in the same article said that the Spanish Flu pandemic lasted for almost two years before it started abating and became endemic. "This happened due to a muted strain like the Omicron which probably was less virulent and more infectious and that actually ultimately brought the pandemic to an end," Budhiraja told Outlook.

We must note that the World Health Organization, governments, and many health experts in India and worldwide have asked people to be extremely cautious and insisted there's no proof yet to absolutely suggest that the Omicron wave will be milder. So while the jury is still out and it's too early to conjecture, as the world steps into a new year, people around the globe will be hoping that this becomes a reality and Covid-19, even if we have to live with it, becomes endemic.