What global warming has done...

Deepak Nagpal If you live in India, especially in the North, and have not been out of the country or the region for the past two-three months, you must have realised by now that when the worst effects of Climate Change or Global Warming finally set-in in the coming decades, how our lives would change forever. Almost no rain, hot and humid weather in North India – and in other parts of the country too – this Monsoon season has proved one thing to all of us – when the weather changes permanently and temperatures rise life would become hell on Earth, notwithstanding the air conditioners or water coolers we all have. Though the lack of Monsoon (rains) this year may have nothing to do with Global Warming – scientists at the UN have blamed it on strong El Nino effect – the impact experienced by everyone in this country is much similar to the one the humanity expects to witness once the Global Warming takes its full effect. All of us, at one point of time or the other, must have faced these questions: Have we been happy to have experienced more (or less) rainfall in our area than usual, of late? Have we more frequently used the expressions “it’s too cold” or “it’s too hot” than we used to ever before? Have we been a witness to the changing weather pattern in our part of the world, of late? Have we been reading about frequent hurricanes and cyclones in newspapers? There are a number of such similar questions and if the answer is in the affirmative to any one of these, then there’s nothing to be amused or surprised! Because all this signals a change in “our world”, and certainly, it’s not for “our good”! The question arises: why? The answer is simple: the climate is changing and it would change the way we survive, not live, forever! Global warming Global warming – the term has become so common now that it no more needs to be explained – is slowly but steadily changing the face of the world. The face, I say, because glaciers, rivers, ice caps, land etc represent what the earth means to us, and probably to some aliens sitting in another, far away part of the universe. The glaciers are melting, rivers are overflowing, sea level is rising, coastal land is vanishing, ice shelves as huge as 19 square miles are breaking apart (in Canada’s arctic) – what more of a proof does one need to establish and believe in the concept of ‘Climate Change’ and ‘Global Warming’. Even eminent scientists of the world – including those on the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change – have said that this is their last bit of opportunity to save this planet, our home, if at all we want to. But there are still some, especially those in power across the world, who behave like an ostrich and prefer to dig their head inside the earth in the fatal belief that they are safe and the worst shall pass. However, to their disbelief, no such thing will happen. The worst will come and wipe out, if not everything, then at least a major part of the mankind’s legacy built over centuries. Steven Spielberg may not have exaggerated the fear when he made the movie, ‘The Day After Tomorrow’. While part of the climate change can be blamed on natural factors, much of it has to do with ‘we humans’. In our zest to bring change and improve, we have forgotten that earth has a limited capability, to change, at least in terms of the speed with which this change is being brought about. Population growth, massive expansion of cities, towns and villages, shrinking of wildlife habitat, deforestation etc are all inflicting irreversible damage on our sensitive earth and Mother Nature. While climate change and global warming can still be described as something that we started seriously worrying about of late, there’s one thing that we knew of much much before any such worries grew. Ozone, hole and Montreal Protocol Depletion of the much important, life giver Ozone Layer was known to man decades ago. Ozone, in the simplest of terms, is a gas which is present in the upper atmosphere – some 10 km to 50 km above the Earth’s surface. It filters out ultraviolet light, also called UV rays, from the sun that can be harmful to most forms of life in large doses. It also acts as a greenhouse gas, absorbing some of the infrared energy emitted by the earth. If ozone does not do what it is supposed to, then it would mean more skin cancers and cataracts in humans, lower plant productivity and deterioration in certain forms of marine life. This gas is constantly formed and reformed in our atmosphere, due to natural factors and reactions. And it is present both as a ‘good gas’ in stratosphere and ‘bad gas’ in troposphere. In stratosphere, ozone acts as a shield to protect earth`s surface from the sun`s harmful UV radiation. In troposphere, ozone is a harmful pollutant that causes damage to lung tissue and plants. The amount of good and bad ozone in the atmosphere depends on a balance between processes that create the gas and those that destroy it. An upset in this balance implies serious consequences for life on Earth. Scientists are already discovering proof of changes occurring in ozone levels – the ‘bad’ tropospheric ozone is increasing in the air we breathe, and the ‘good’ stratospheric ozone is decreasing in our protective ozone layer. The amount of ozone in the stratosphere has been waning mostly because of emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and similar chlorinated and brominated organic molecules, which cause depletion of the gas. Among the most common Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) are CFCs used in refrigerators, air-conditioning units foam products and aerosol sprays and halons used in fire extinguishers. The rapid depletion in ozone has even created a ‘hole’ in the protective layer. While there’s no ‘hole’ in the ozone layer as such (ozone is a gas and it is technically not possible to create a hole in it), its depletion in many regions has been so severe that it has come to be known as, for instance, the ‘Antarctic Ozone Hole’. This was something the world didn’t ignore and opened the ‘Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer’ for signatures on September 16, 1987. The signatories to the Protocol committed to cut down and eliminate the use of CFCs. Amendments were made to the Protocol later to ban CFC production after 1995. So far, 191 countries have ratified the treaty and these were labelled as ‘developed’ or ‘developing’ based on several economic factors. The distinction allowed for different regulations to be applied to the participating nations. Developing countries were allowed a grace period of 10 to 15 years to comply with reduction and elimination rules over developed countries. While efforts have been made at international and national level, there is an immediate need for each one of us to understand that some of our daily-use products are destroying the ozone layer with or without our knowledge. CFCs present in our daily-use-products like deodorants, fridges and air-conditioners pose indirect threat to our very own existence. So it becomes imperative for us to care for these household products and make sure the CFCs they contain never get released into the atmosphere. While using any of these or similar products, we should always remember one thing: a single CFC molecule can destroy 100,000 ozone molecules. Climate worries Being concerned about climate change is not something to be laughed at. Recent scientific studies have come out with worrying predictions – that global warming is likely to boost the number and power of the strongest tropical cyclones and hurricanes. "As the seas warm, the ocean has more energy to convert to tropical cyclone wind," say authors of the study. Also, the incredibly rapid pace at which Arctic ice shelves in Canada are disappearing is an early indicator of the "very substantial changes" that global warming will impose on all mankind, scientists believe. As a matter of fact, five ice shelves along Ellesmere Island in Canada’s Far North, which are over 4,000 years old, had shrunk by 23 percent in the last summer alone. "Climate models indicate that the greatest changes, the most severe changes, will happen earliest in the highest northern latitudes," says Warwick Vincent, director of the Centre for Northern Studies at Laval University in Quebec. "This will be the starting point for more substantial changes throughout the rest of the planet.... Our indicators are showing us exactly what the climate models predict," he adds. Scientists are not just looking into the future to study the effects of global warming, which will most likely be more damaging weather extremes such as hurricanes, cyclones and floods. They are also looking into the past: a new research of climate conducted on the Northern Hemisphere has revealed that temperature there has been warmer from past decade as compared to any time in the last 1,300 years. Some evidence has further pointed out that the comparison may go back till 1,700 years as well. Global warming and water crisis The effect of global warming is not just limited to change in temperature. It poses an even bigger threat to humanity in the form of water crisis. While governments across the globe continue to spend billions on numerous development projects, very few seem to be worried about the nature. Almost every forward movement that humanity makes towards development, it takes a step backward in preserving (or say destroying) the environment, nature and our beautiful earth. And water is very much a part of this earth. Considered to be one of the five basic elements of life, water is no longer as important as gold, money, car, house etc. The human action, or to put it better the human inaction is destroying this very precious element of life. What is making matters worse are the consequences of the conflict between the man and nature, one of which is global warming. Climate change has raised the stakes. Scientists have blamed global warming for more frequent droughts. Storms and flooding, which destroy crops, contaminate freshwater and damage the facilities used to store and carry that water, have also increased due to the change in climatic conditions. Search goes deeper Panic is mounting due to shortage of water. People are going deeper and deeper to tap the sinking water table, in the absence of or shortage of potable water. Governments too, are using ground water because of lack of its availability from other sources. Most of the development projects being undertaken across the world depend on groundwater supplies. But we forget that tapping groundwater is like constantly withdrawing from a bank account without ever depositing anything into it. The unchecked use of groundwater, which is irreplaceable, will not only result in depletion of a once-and-for-all resource. Rivers, lakes etc that depend on it will perish too. Salty seawater will then enter into the system to replace the fresh water that has been pumped out. Climate in peril The rise in global temperature recorded in the 20th century was the highest seen during the last thousand years, and the last decade was the warmest since records began. With the rise in temperature comes more heat, leading to melting of glaciers and icecaps, thereby causing a ‘surge’ in sea level. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has projected that global mean sea level will likely rise with a ‘best estimate’ of 50 centimetres by the end of this century. This 50cm rise in sea level, at many places around the world, would lead to washing away of beaches, along with a major portion of the coastline. People residing in low-lying islands like the Maldives, where the highest point is only two to three metres above current sea levels, will suffer as an additional 50cm could see major chunks of their islands being washed away due to erosion or covered by water. Even if the sea level remains below the highest point, many islands will lose most of their supplies of drinking water as seawater will invade their freshwater aquifers. This damage will be nothing when compared to the one millions of people living in the low-level coastal areas of South Asia, including India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, will suffer. Apart from triggering a rise in sea level, global warming will ‘intensify drought and floods’, said Stephen Schneider, a lead author for the IPCC. Global warming will lead to long, dry periods at places where the atmosphere normally experiences high pressure and droughts, while more rain and gully washers will be seen at places where the atmosphere is configured to be wet, he explained. Climate refugees Global warming poses threat to water supplies in other ways too. A large part of the world’s fresh water supplies are stored in glaciers atop mountains. The glaciers grow with snow in wet or cold seasons, while their edges start melting in dry and hot seasons, gently feeding streams and rivers. Huge cities have come up below on the belief that the mountains will keep providing them with drinking water, always. However, it is not the case. The atmosphere’s temperature is rising even faster at high altitude. The glaciers are melting, initially giving more water, but gradually becoming smaller and smaller in size. Soon, we won’t find many of them, including the Himalayan glaciers. What will happen when this supply of freshwater stops? People in these cities won’t just sit there, but move to places where people already live. This will give rise to a situation where we will have ‘climate refugees’ in our own countries. A recent report, which adds weight to this projection, states that two billion people will face acute water shortage this century as Himalayan glaciers melt due to global warming. Preparing for war? This water crisis may pose threat to international peace and security, as advocated by many. The potential for conflict is much more than theoretical. There are already tensions between Turkey, Syria and Iraq over the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt have been threatening each other over the Nile. According to the UN, water scarcity is among the prime reasons behind the deadly wars in Sudan’s Darfur region. In the Middle East, water is seen as a resource that has strategic value. Amidst tensions between the nations over it, water has been included in almost all peace deals that have either been proposed or signed in recent years. Many in the region, including several prominent leaders, have claimed that ‘the next war in the Middle East will be over water’. There seems to be some weight in the above claim. Tensions are already high and are likely to mount in the near future. It is estimated that by 2025, 40 countries in the Middle East and Africa will face acute water scarcity. But going to war over water makes very little sense – both economically as well as politically. To put the whole situation into perspective, Israeli hydrologist Uri Shamir very rightly said, “If there is political will for peace, water will not be a hindrance. If you want reasons to fight, water will give you ample opportunities.” But the fact is, the outlook for Asia as well as India remains grim. While the Asian Development Bank has said developing countries in Asia could face an ‘unprecedented’ water crisis within 10 years, experts in India have also commented that the country’s population will outstrip the availability of water in the next four decades. In the light of all this, it becomes very important for us to realise this – if we don’t change, the Earth will change!