Bihar Assembly Elections: Opinion poll predicts absolute majority for Modi-led NDA

A poll survey on Friday projected a majority for the Narendra Modi-powered National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the upcoming high-stakes Bihar Assembly Elections.

Patna: A poll survey on Friday projected a majority for Narendra Modi-powered National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the upcoming high-stake Bihar Assembly Elections.

The survey was conducted by JantaKaMood for Zee Media Ltd from October 5-8, 2015.

The pre poll survey indicates that 54 percent electorate is expected to vote for the NDA, while 40.2 percent may vote for grand alliance and 5.8 percent will opt for the Others.

The NDA comprises of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Hindustani Awam Morcha(HAM), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP).

The grand alliance has been formed by Janata Dal-United, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress.  

According to the survey, if the polls are conducted today, the NDA will be leading in 162 seats, the grand alliance in 51 and the remaining 30 seats will witness a very close fight.

35.1 percent of the Muslim population is expected to vote for the NDA, while 57.9 percent of the minority community will go with the grand alliance-led by Nitish Kumar.

The poll survey further predicts that Hindus will vote in majority for the BJP-led alliance. 57.8 percent Hindus are predicted to vote for the NDA, 36.6 percent will opt for the JDU+RJD+ and Others will get 5.6 percent of their votes.

The survey also predicts a close contest for the Yadav votes. BJP-led alliance is expected to win over 43.3 percent Yadav votes, grand alliance 51.9 percent and Others 4.8 percent.

It seems the female community is inclined towards the Modi-led NDA. Around 57.5 percent female electorates are to vote for the NDA, 36.0 percent will go for grand alliance and 6.5 percent will opt for Others.

According to the survey, vote share in major caste groups in Bihar will be as follows:

Forward votes: NDA is expected to win over 65 percent of the voters, 30 percent will stick to grand alliance and the remaining 5 percent will vote for Others.

Dalit + MahaDalit votes: 57 percent want to elect the NDA, 36 percent want JDU+RJD+ and 7 percent would go for Others

OBC votes: The BJP-led NDA projected to win over 55 percent, Nitish-led alliance 40 percent and Others to get 5 percent.

50 percent Yadav (OBC) voters want to opt for grand alliance, 45 percent would like to vote for NDA and 5 percent will go for the Others.

52 percent of Kurmi (OBC) want NDA government in Bihar, 40 percent want grand alliance and 7 percent want Others.

While the BJP-led alliance is expected to win over 55 percent of EBC voters, 'Mahagathbandhan' will get 40 percent and Others 5 percent.

The Khushwaha (EBC) community is tilted towards the NDA and is 57 percent are likely to vote for it. 40 percent want to side with Nitish-Lalu and rest 3 percent are tilted towards Others.

Furthermore, the electorate from Koeri (EBC) want NDA. 58 percent want BJP-led alliance, 37 percent want JDU+RJD+ and 5 percent would vote for Others.

NDA is projected to win over Teli (EBC) with 70 percent of the votes.

There is a close contest for the Adivasi votes, with NDA predicted to get 47 percent, 'Mahagathbandhan' 48 percent and Other s 5 percent.

The pre poll survey also said that the NDA, which registered an emphatic win in the 2014 General Elections, is expected to get 54.2 percent of votes in the 32 Lok Sabha seats. JDU+RJD+ is likely to get 40.1 percent and Others 5.7 percent.

If Lok Sabha elections are conducted today the NDA will win over 39 seats and JDU+RJD+ will fail to open its account, the survey said.

Interestingly, the survey says that aligning with Lalu will backfire Nitish. While, 59.7 percent say that the alliance will  hamper Nitish's prospects in the polls, 30.2 percent think otherwise.

Another interesting factor is BJP is immensely gaining from PM Narendra Modi's rallies. 62.8 percent think BJP's star campaigner's rallies are impacting the voters.

The survey is conducted through telephony. Survey sample is created through random sampling at Assembly constituency level for all the 243 Assembly seats. Approximately 10 lakh people from Bihar were approached in this round of survey. Data processing, analytics and historical data review are used to derive insights from the collected responses.

Polls to the 243-seat Assembly would be held on October 12, 16, 28, November 1 and 5. The term of the current Assembly expires on November 29.

There are over 6.68 crore voters in the state, of whom as many as 2.04 crore voters belong to the age group of 18 to 29 years.