Researchers make more accurate global warming predictions

Melbourne: Australian scientists claimed to have narrowed down the predicted range of global warming which will lead to more accuracy while projecting future level of rise in temperature due to climate change.

Scientists from University of Melbourne and Victoria University say they used a new method to achieve the results. The paper, led by Roger Bodman from Victoria University, concluded that exceeding six degrees warming was now unlikely while exceeding two degrees was very likely. According to a statement issued by the University of Melbourne, the new method involved combining observations of carbon dioxide and global temperature variations with simple climate model simulations to project future global warming. Bodman said while it was possible to further narrow the range in these predictions, significant uncertainty would always remain due to the complexity of climate change drivers. "This study ultimately shows why waiting for certainty will fail as a strategy," said Bodman. "Some uncertainty will always remain, meaning that we need to manage the risks of warming with the knowledge we have," he added talking about the study in which he worked with David Karoly and Peter Rayner from University of Melbourne. The study found 63 percent of uncertainty in projected warming was due to single sources such as climate sensitivity, followed by future behaviour of the carbon cycle and the cooling effect of aerosols while 37 percent of uncertainty came from the combination of these sources. "This means that if any single uncertainty is reduced even the most important, climate sensitivity significant uncertainty will remain," Bodman said. The researchers also pointed out that the study reinforced the importance of strong action on climate change. "Our results reconfirm the need for urgent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions if the world is to avoid exceeding the global warming target of 2 degrees needed to minimise dangerous climate change," Karoly said. The findings were published in Nature Climate Change today. PTI