Manisha Singh
India has seen numerous elections since it became Independent. Some of them were predictable, whereas others have thrown up surprises. Some elections have been about anti-incumbency, while others have been about issues like price rise and corruption. 2014 General Elections are no different even as it is being dubbed as one of the most exciting and unprecedented polls ever.
These elections are too about one party facing huge anti-incumbency factor and the other party believing that the momentum is in their favour. Whereas the Congress is tipped to end up with its worst tally ever, the BJP buoyed by the so-called Narendra Modi ‘wave’ is fancying its chances of coming back to power at the Centre after a decade.
But it’s not only BJP and Modi who fancy their chances in the backdrop of a beleaguered Congress and a weakened UPA. Politicians like Mamata Banerjee too fancy their luck if the Congress fares badly and if the BJP-led NDA is not able to touch the 272 mark then they can emerge as the movers and shakers in the last lap before formation of the next government.
It is precisely for this reason that Trinamool Congress chief and West Bengal Chief Minister has floated the idea of a ‘Federal Front’- formation of a non-Congress, non-BJP front – which would have nothing to do with the ‘Third Front’ mooted by her arch rivals the Left. So the country may well witness a ‘Fourth Front’ if the two national parties fail to make the cut and the Third Front fails to get the numbers to be relevant.
Mamata has already dubbed the Third Front as an unviable “tired front” and has expressed hope that a different kind of Federal Front will rule the country after the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. Her confidence perhaps emanates from the fact that the TMC is tipped to win big in West Bengal and maybe emerge as the third largest party in the sixteenth Lok Sabha.
As for questions regarding her aspirations of being a contender for the PM’s post, Mamata has kept the option open saying that it was for the ‘people to decide’. In order to realize her dream the TMC chief has been talking to her Bihar counterpart Nitish Kumar (JD(U), Odisha counterpart Naveen Patnaik (BJD), Tamil Nadu counterpart Jayalalithaa (AIADMK) amongst others.
However, the idea has not taken any concrete shape as of now. Mamata has made it clear that any such front would crystalize after the polls. She has also emphasized on the need for regional parties to come together as they had the same goal – the welfare of the people of their states.
What is interesting is that some of the parties that she is talking to were part of the eleven member party which came together in the national capital in February as part of the Third Front.
Mamata did get a fillip to her proposal when Jayalalithaa called her. This was after the West Bengal Chief Minister said that her Tamil Nadu counterpart had the potential to be the PM. But what transpired between them was not made public. The AIADMK chief made the phone call when talks between her and the CPI and CPI(M) broke down over seat sharing in Tamil Nadu.
The BJP would be hoping that any such idea fails to take off because if the NDA is stuck at 230-240 seats (most of the predictions say so) then it would need the support from the likes of Mamata or Jayalalithaa, both whom are expected to do well, to form the government.
Whatever, the results may be on May 16, as of now the idea of the Federal Front or rather the ‘Fourth Front’ throws up more questions than answers. Some of them are – Who is going to be the PM candidate of such a front? Can any front take shape without the Left being a part of it? Can the idea of such a front provide a stable government to the country? What will be the ideological or the political glue that will bind them together? How different is the Federal Front from the Third Front or how similar?
Thus, what happens on the D-day is difficult to predict but with regional parties increasingly doing well in their own states and with none of the two national parties having a pan-India appeal, who knows what the end result may be. After all in any elections at the end of the day it all boils down to sheer numbers.
