Washington: Terming it as a breakthrough in
Indo-Pak relationship, a US-based strategic think tank has
said that New Delhi`s offer to have Foreign Secretary-level
talks with Islamabad is driven by India`s concerns over
Taliban appeasement in Afghanistan.
"Though little progress has been made in India`s
efforts to get Islamabad to crack down on India-focused
militants operating on Pakistani soil, India`s concerns over
Taliban appeasement in Afghanistan are driving New Delhi
toward engagement with Islamabad," said Stratfor, which
provides strategic intelligence on security and geopolitical
affairs.
"India knows the only way it can edge into the
Afghanistan dialogue and hope to influence the Taliban
negotiations is to first reopen a diplomatic channel with
Pakistan," it said in its news analysis on India’s offer of
talks with Islamabad.
Stratfor said India demonstrated its openness to
cooperate on the issue when Indian External Affairs Minister
SM Krishna said January 30 that India is willing to give
negotiations with the Taliban a try.
Krishna even went so far as to say that India could
be "quite satisfied" even if Pakistan took a "few steps" in
cooperation with the Mumbai attacks investigation, it said.
"Pakistan will likely accept the Indian offer to
talk, but problems will arise when it comes time to set the
agenda. India will want to talk about Pakistani-sponsored
militancy and Taliban negotiations. Pakistan will want to talk
about everything else. It will be up to the United States to
attempt to bridge this difficult gap," it said.
Stratfor said United States and Pakistan are showing
signs of realigning their views on how to negotiate with the
Taliban in Afghanistan.
The US needs results in this war on a short timeline,
and is finding that it must work with Pakistan if it wants to
see progress in negotiations with the Taliban.
As a result, the United States also must face the
unpalatable political prospect of opening a dialogue with
high-level militant commanders like Afghan Taliban chief
Mullah Omar, it noted.
"These developments are causing concern to New
Delhi," Stratfor said adding that India remembers well the
security problems it faced while the Taliban ruled Afghanistan
from 1994 to 2001, including a 1999 hijacking of an Indian
airliner by Pakistani militants who forced the aircraft to
land in Kandahar with the cooperation of the Taliban regime.
"India is fearful of any US-Pakistani designs for
Taliban appeasement in Afghanistan that would allow the
militant group substantial political space to operate.
For this reason, India also is increasing diplomatic
contacts with Iran, which shares New Delhi’s fears of a
political comeback for the Taliban in Afghanistan," it said.
Stratfor noted that Pakistan in recent months has
voiced increasing concerns over Indian involvement in
Afghanistan.
Though India has primarily focused its efforts in
Afghanistan on political and economic reconstruction,
Islamabad has a deep-seated fear that New Delhi is creating a
foothold in Afghanistan to the west to encircle Pakistan.
Fuelling these fears in Islamabad are the United
States moves to deepen its relationship with India.
"Rumours have been circulating since US Defense
Secretary Robert Gates visit to India on January 20 that the
United States is discussing with New Delhi the prospect of
Indian security forces helping the Afghan national police and
army," it said.
"Though there have been no concrete moves on this
front, the prospect of India playing a direct security role in
Afghanistan represents a redline for Pakistan.
And Islamabad has made this clear to Washington in
routinely opposing any Indian role in Afghanistan," it said.
While US officials have long been pushing both sides
to resume dialogue, India has resisted, claiming that little
has been done by Islamabad to crack down on India-focused
militant groups, most notably Lashkar-e-Toiba, that are
operating on Pakistani soil under the nose of the Pakistan’s
security apparatus, Stratfor said.
"However, India recently has decided to shift to a
new approach with Pakistan one in which New Delhi will
insist that this renewed engagement first centre on the issue
of terrorism.
Pakistan can be expected to continue skirting around
this issue, as it already is struggling to rein in former
militant proxies while neutralising those that have turned
against the state, it said.
"Judging from the Pakistani Foreign Office
spokesman’s February 4 remarks calling for a wide-ranging
dialogue, rather than the focused approach India is
advocating, these talks appear to be headed for a shaky
start," Stratfor said.
PTI
