New Delhi: All the votes in Kerala, Tripura, Nagaland and Sikkim are likely to go in favour of UPA nominee Pranab Mukherjee in the Presidential poll, leaving a blank for Opposition candidate PA Sangma.
The entire bunch of political parties, which have MPs and MLAs from these states, have officially announced support for Mukherjee though two parties CPI and RSP, which have lawmakers in Kerala and Tripura, have decided to abstain from voting.
Lawmakers in Nagaland and Sikkim are likely to vote for Mukherjee while there will be absentions in Kerala and Tripura, where CPI and RSP have presence in the Assembly.
All the votes to be polled in these states will go to Mukherjee as the parties, including CPI-M, have pledged support for Mukherjee`s Presidential bid, save for some unlikely event of cross-voting.
Overall in the election, Mukherjee is likely to have a smooth ride with an assured support from parties which have a vote value of at least 6.50 lakh, much above the requisite figure of 5,49,442.
With NDA allies JD-U and Shiv Sena breaking ranks with BJP to support Mukherjee, the number on his rival side has dwindled and Sangma is likely to garner around 3.20 lakh. He can muster around 3.65 lakh votes if Trinamool supports him.
Kerala, which has a vote value of 41,812 in the electoral college of 10,98,882, has 140 MLAs, 29 Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs, of which 15 MLAs (13 from CPI and two from RSP) and an MP (CPI) will abstain from voting. Mukherjee is likely to garner 38,830 vote value while absention is valued at 2,988.
In Tripura with 60 MLAs and 3 MPs, Mukherjee is likely to pocket votes having a value of 3,606. Three MLAs of CPI and RSP, with a vote value of 78, will abstain from voting.
Nagaland and Sikkim have a vote value of 1,956 and 1,640 respectively.
Meghalaya, Sangma`s home-state which has a vote value of 3,204, is presenting an interesting picture with some regional parties within the Congress-led coalition in the state rooting for `son-of-the-soil` in the July 19 poll. The counting of votes will take place on July 22.
It will be interesting to know whom will Sangma`s daughter Agatha, a minister in the UPA government, vote for in the poll for which her party NCP has announced support for Mukherjee.
Congress leader and Meghalaya Chief Minister Mukul Sangma has attacked Sangma questioning his claim of representing the tribals in the Presidential poll saying the former Lok Sabha Speaker "can`t behave like a rogue element".
Trinamool Congress will announce its decision on whom to support 72 hours before the polling. The party had broken ranks with the UPA on the Presidential poll and Congress is now working hard to woo her back.
The supporters of the 77-year-old former finance minister include Samajwadi Party, BSP, CPI-M, Forward Bloc and JD-S among others. The UPA figures had come down to 4.12 lakh after Trinamool Congress decided against the Congress choice.
But with the support of SP (66,688 vote value), BSP (45,473), JD-U (40,737), Shiv Sena (18,495), JD-S (6,138) and CPI(M) and Forward Bloc (around 41,000) and others offering support, Mukherjee can expect vote share of about 6.50 lakh.
The electoral college for the Presidential poll is made up of 4,896 members -- 776 MPs and 4,120 MLAs. If all the votes are polled, a candidate who gets more than 5,49,442 votes will be declared the winner.