London: British scientists claim to
have developed a one-minute test which will tell couples their
chances of conceiving a baby through IVF.
A team from Universities of Glasgow and Bristol has,
in fact, created a free online programme, which can provide a
99 per cent accurate prediction of the success of IVF and thus
help couples decide whether to try the treatment.
The online calculator, `www.ivfpredict.com`, which
calculates the odds of successful treatments from the answers
to nine questions, will soon be available for download as a
mobile phone app, the scientists said.
The team analysed the details of more than 144,000 IVF
cycles to produce a statistical model that can give a highly
accurate prediction of live birth.
"Treatment-specific factors can be used to provide
infertile couples with a very accurate assessment of their
chance of a successful outcome following IVF," `The Daily
Telegraph` quoted Scott Nelson of the University of Glasgow,
who led the research, as saying.
The scientists said that up until now estimates of
success have not been very reliable. But, the new formula
takes into account the woman`s age, number of years trying to
get pregnant, whether she is using her own eggs, the cause of
infertility, the number of previous IVF cycles and whether she
has previously been pregnant or had a baby.
For their research, the team used data from the Human
Fertilisation and Embryology Authority, which regulates IVF
treatment in Britain. They looked at all cycles carried out
between 2003 and 2007 and assessed the chances of having a
IVF is successful in about a third of women under 35
years old but in only five to 10 per cent of women over the
age of 40, Nelson said.
Gordon Smith, head of Cambridge University`s
obstetrics and gynaecology department, said: "There is a real
need in medicine to try and replace general statements such as
high risk and good chance with well validated, quantitative
estimates of probability.
"This model provides women considering IVF with an
understandable and quantitative estimate of their chances of
success. It is a great resource."