New Delhi: China could do a Kargil on India
"to teach India a lesson", warned strategic affairs think-tank
IDSA, adding it could be a "limited war".
The limited hostilities could be confined to a specific
section of the border, limited in duration and amenable to a
negotiated termination, the Institute for Defence Studies and
Analyses (IDSA) said in its report.
Projecting conflict scenarios between the two Asian
giants, a report titled `A Consideration of Sino Indian
Conflict` by Ali Ahmed said, "The lower end of the conflict at
this level could be a Kargil-like situation. China`s aim could
be to teach India a lesson so as to influence India`s rise
before its capacity building underway acquires traction."
The report warned this "could be a limited war confined
to a specific section of the border or LAC, limited in
duration and amenable to a negotiated termination".
The Kargil hostilities were triggered by infiltration of
Pakistani soldiers and Kashmiri militants into positions on
the Indian side of the Line of Control (LoC) in 1999.
Ahmed warns at a higher level, China could indulge in a
"territorial grab" by entering an area such as Tawang in
"At the next rung, it could be a more ambitious bid
southwards up to its claim line. Lateral or horizontal
expansion of conflict from one theatre to another is the next
step, with the conflict engulfing one or more of the four
possible theatres -- Ladakh, Central Sector, Sikkim and
Arunachal," the report said.
The think-tank said in view of India becoming better
prepared in future with its capability-development programmes,
it could engage China`s "hegemonic attention."
"Since India would be better prepared by then, China may
instead wish to set India back now by a preventive war. This
means current day preparedness is as essential as preparation
for the future," it said.